Forecast of Latvian Age Structure

Abstract

Using the developed mathematical model for forecasting population and age structure in Latvia, the structure of different generations in Latvia has been calculated. This model is based on generally available statistics on the population and birth rates in 1990-2018. Using these data, we have calculated coefficients that characterize the annual decline in population due to mortality and migration. Using fertility indicators in each fertile group, forecasts of births for the coming years are made, and the estimated population in Latvia is calculated. Forecasts are extrapolated to 2050. The forecast shows that in 2050 the population in Latvia will decrease to one million. Using generic population breakdown by generation, the number of people in each generation in Latvia has been calculated from 2018 onwards. On the basis of this calculation, an overview of the proportions of generations in the Latvian labor market over the years has been developed. Based on forecasts of demographic structure, it is calculated what proportion of workers in Latvia will be formed by popular age group – Millenials. It is shown that this generation’s proportion will exceed 40% of the number of employees already in 2030.